sexta-feira, 30 de junho de 2017

O futuro do comércio internacional

Economist Rohinton P. Medhora considers arguments by Kaushik Basu, Jeffrey Frankel, Laura Tyson, and other Project Syndicate commentators to assess the populist threat to globalization and international trade.

Issue adviser FRIDAY, JUNE 30, 2017

The Future of Trade

The Future of Trade

The past year's populist resurgence has brought to the fore ongoing debates about trade and underscored public concerns about internationalism. Can the mechanisms of globalization that shaped the twentieth-century world economy be salvaged to continue delivering prosperity in the coming decades?

Estados Unidos exportam cada vez mais petróleo

Suddenly the U.S. Is Exporting More Crude Than a Bunch of OPEC Members

Bloomberg Wed, Jun 28 

terça-feira, 27 de junho de 2017

Salário mínimo

Seattle city government is out with a new NBER paper evaluating Seattle’s minimum wage increase to $13 an hour and it finds significant disemployment effects that on net reduce the incomes of minimum wage workers.
How Seattle provides a practical example of minimum wages leading to losses in income and employment


Four Reasons Why China's Industries Will Dominate The World By 2030


domingo, 25 de junho de 2017

Brasil na armadilha da renda média

O período de maior aumento sustentado da renda per capita no Brasil ocorreu sob as políticas desenvolvimentistas do período militar; depois chegou a estagnação dos anos 1980 e início dos 90 (começando pelo segundo choque do petróleo, em dezembro de 1979 e crise da dívida externa, em 1982) e só voltou a crescer, impulsionados pela demanda chinesa e crescimento da economia mundial nos anos 2000, mas isso não se revelou sustentável.
A armadilha da renda média no Brasil

Veja também:

Antony Mueller
Após um crescimento moderado na década de 1990 -- consequência inevitável de seus fortes e necessários…

sábado, 24 de junho de 2017

A doença holandesa

On Dutch Disease
The recent boom in primary commodity prices has once more stimulated interest in the issue of “Dutch Disease” – the changes in a country’s structure of…


"Imagine you thought that helping the worst-off was what mattered most, but that free markets were the best way of doing it.
You might be a neoliberal: someone who thinks that lightly-regulated markets, free trade and free movement are the best way to create wealth and innovation domestically and globally, but that the state does have a role to play in redistributing some of the proceeds to the least well-off. 
...Ver mais
Imagine you thought that helping the worst-off was what mattered most, but that free markets were the best way of doing it. You might be a neoliberal: some

sábado, 17 de junho de 2017


What history says about inequality and technology

The recent rise in earnings for skilled workers is a rare phenomenon 
ONE factor behind the rise of income inequality in America over the past four decades is that the labour market has increasingly favoured the well-educated. Real wages for college graduates have risen by over a third since 1963, whereas wages for those without high-school diplomas have dropped. As more of the economy becomes automated, doomsayers worry that the gap between the haves and the have-nots will only grow. History shows, however, that this need not be so.

quarta-feira, 14 de junho de 2017

Taxa de poupança da China e do Brasil

Taxa de poupança de China
Poupança em porcentos do PIB
(atual 47,9 %)

Taxa de poupança do Brasil
Poupança em porcentos do PIB
(atual 16,4 %)

Taxa de poupança ótima para o Brasil: Resumo 

Esse trabalho acadêmico utilizou a teoria da regra de ouro do modelo de Solow na economia brasileira.... A taxa de poupança ótima foi encontrada em s=42,94 (%PIB). Atualmente a taxa de poupança brasileira está bem abaixo da taxa ótima, s=13,0 (%PIB), o que em grande parte explica o baixo crescimento brasileiro. O Brasil deve elevar sua taxa de poupança no sentido de obter um crescimento econômico sadio e sustentável.

Pobreza na América

What You Should Know about Poverty in America

by Antony Davies and James R. Harrigan
Poverty is a big deal – it affects about 41 million people in the United States every year – yet the federal government spends a huge amount of money to end poverty. How can this be? And how do we even measure poverty in the first place? This week on Words and Numbers, Antony Davies and James R. Harrigan answer these questions and delve into what can be done to help the poor.

Recusos para Macro III - Crescimento econômico

Data Shows Crescimento Econômico:

- Os fatos do crescimento econômico

- Poupança e a acumulação do capital

- Progresso tecnológico e crescimento

- Progresso tecnológico e desemprego

Fatos do crescimento econômico

sexta-feira, 9 de junho de 2017

Déficit orçamentária

Distribuição de riqueza

A distribuição de riqueza sob um capitalismo livre é sempre temporária, com base no serviço aos clientes e dependente do tamanho do grau em que o capital é colocado ao serviço dos consumidores.
Numa economia dinâmica orientada para o constante aperfeiçoamento de produtos e serviços – no capitalismo livre – a distribuição da riqueza é de caráter completamente diferente do que em outros sistemas econômicos. Em um capitalismo livre a riqueza é, em primeiro lugar, sempre apenas temporária, exatamente porque se baseia na melhoria de bens e serviços e, como tal, torna-se obsoleta através de novas melhorias dos competidores. Em segundo lugar, grandes riquezas no capitalismo livre existem em bens de capital que devem ser colocados ao serviço dos consumidores para gerar renda. Quem usa o capital, não é o dono jurídico e administrativa, mas sim o cliente. Em terceiro lugar, a quantidade de riqueza sob o capitalismo livre depende do grau de quanto o capital é dedicado ao serviço do consumidor. A riqueza sob o capitalismo é na mão dos consumidores, eles são os donos de fato, donos no sentido econômico independentemente do que quem é o dono jurídico.  

Mostra uma imensa ignorância pôr a distribuição da riqueza sob o capitalismo livre na mesmo categoria como a distribuição da riqueza no passado quando não foi uma riqueza de capital no serviço do consumidor, mas foi uma riqueza na disposição arbitrária do dono no uso do seu consumo pessoal. 

terça-feira, 6 de junho de 2017

Cem anos PIB do Brasil

100 anos de PIB no Brasil

Economia venezolana

Venezuela’s Road to Disaster Is Littered With Chinese Cash

Foreign Policy Magazine 

Economia brasileira

World Bank: Brazil Is The 'Worst Economy' In Latin America


sexta-feira, 2 de junho de 2017

Uma lista de livros para estudar teoria econômica austríaca

The Top Dozen Books on Austrian Economics

Gary North - June 02, 2017

The list begins with books that are easier to read. The list gets progressively more rigorous.
1. What Has Government Done to Our Money? (1964), by Murray Rothbard. This is an easy to read book. It is short: a long article. It introduces a crucial topic, one which is central to Austrian school economics: money. Rothbard's presentation sets forth his view of how central banking has undermined reliable, predictable money.
2. The Case for a 100% Gold Dollar (1962), by Rothbard. This extends his discussion in the first book. It is another long article.
3. Mises on Money (2012), by Gary North. This presents the main ideas of the Austrian theory of the business cycle, as first presented by Mises.
4. America's Great Depression (1963), by Rothbard. This book presents the case against the Federal Reserve in the 1920's and against Herbert Hoover's interventions, 1930-33.
5. Bureaucracy (1944), by Ludwig von Mises. This short book shows the differences between profit management (free market) and bureaucracy (state). It is about 130 pages. It is easy to read. It shows why business techniques of efficiency are useless for reforming government. The funding is different.
6. The Road to Serfdom (1944), by F. A. Hayek. This is the most widely known book from an Austrian standpoint. It was a best-seller. It presents the case against government intervention in the name of liberty, not efficiency. Chapter 10 is great: "Why the Worst Get on Top."
7. Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth (1920), by Mises. This short book converted a generation of young socialists to the free market. Hayek was one of them. Mises showed how socialism is inherently irrational, for it has no rational pricing system.
8. Socialism (1922), by Mises. This extended his discussion in the previous book. It is the classic book ever written against all forms of socialism.
9. Human Action (1949), by Mises. This is his magnum opus. This was the first book to defend free market economic theory consistently in every area of the economy that is governed by the price system. It is comprehensive as no previous economics book had been.
10. Man, Economy, and State (1962), by Rothbard. This presents Human Action with the paraphernalia of college-level economics. It has lots of graphs. It has lots of footnotes. It is well organized. It is clear, as Rothbard's books always are.
11. Economic Logic (3rd ed.), by Mark Skousen. This is an Economics 1 college textbook. It covers the basics. If you ever have to take a beginning course in economics, read this book in the month before you enroll.
12. Individualism and Economic Order (1948), by Hayek. This is a collection of his articles. The key article is Chapter 4 on decentralized economic knowledge.
Not for the fainthearted:
13. Market Theory and the Price System (1963), by Israel Kirzner. This is an upper division college textbook in price theory. It is tough slogging. It went out of print half a century ago. He never revised it. He later abandoned all traces of the #1 methodological tool of analysis of all such textbooks: equilibrium. The idea of equilibrium is based on a hypothetical and inherently misleading assumption, perfect foreknowledge. Far better is this book:
14. Competition and Entrepreneurship (1973), by Kirzner. He made his academic reputation with this book. It distinguishes between risk and uncertainty, a distinction that goes back to Frank Knight's greatest book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921). Mises favorably cited Knight's book in Human Action. Kirzner's book undermines all of the graphs in Market Theory and the Price System. Textbook graphs assume equilibrium. There is no better book refuting equilibrium than Competition and Entrepreneurship. There is not one graph and not one mathematical formula in the book.
Most of these books are available from the Mises Institute, either as printed books or as free PDF's. Skim each one online. If you like it, order a printed version. Then read it, pencil or highlighter in hand.

quinta-feira, 1 de junho de 2017

Brasil - Alemanha: grau da complexidade econômica

"Tomemos por exemplo o estado alemão de Baden-Wurttemberg que conta com 10 milhões de habitantes e produz o equivalente ao PIB norueguês e 3x mais do que o PIB português. O que se produz lá que faz com que as pessoas sejam tão ricas e eficientes? Ouro? Muito pelo contrário. A produção de riquezas naturais e agricultura é praticante irrelevante por lá. Seriam os restaurantes, as farmácias, hospitais, shopping centers e cabeleireiros a fonte de tanta produtividade e riqueza? Também não. A grande fonte de riqueza e produtividade desse estado está na produção de bens transacionáveis sofisticados. Aí se baseiam companhias como Porsche, Hugo Boss, Zeiss, Mercedes e SAP e inúmeras outras nas áreas de mecânica de precisão e maquinaria . O estado não é rico graças aos seus recursos naturais, é rico por conta de sua rede produtiva altamente sofisticada que abastece o mundo inteiro com bens transacionáveis complexos. Ainda na mesma região, no estado vizinho da Bavaria os destaques são:  BMW, Audi, Siemens, Continental, MAN, Puma e Adidas."

Alemanha e Brasil: qual a diferença principal?