domingo, 28 de maio de 2017

Não perca - grande evento em Aracaju

sábado, 27 de maio de 2017

Convite Aracaju

Segunda, 29 de maio de 2017, 18h30-21h30

quarta-feira, 24 de maio de 2017

Governo por loteria

    Os libertários desejam que as atividades do estado sejam reduzidas ao máximo para abrir mais espaço ao livre mercado. Quando o estado encolhe, quando seus gastos…

segunda-feira, 22 de maio de 2017

Socialismo existe?

Socialists always claim that real socialism has never existed. Capitalists always claim the real capitalism has never existed. Are they right?

China no caminho do futuro

5 ambiciosos projetos de infraestrutura com os quais a China quer 'sacudir' a ordem econômica mundial 

A China quer ampliar sua influência mundial através de um colossal e dispendioso plano de infraestrutura.
"Esperamos desencadear novas forças econômicas para o crescimento global, construir novas plataformas para o desenvolvimento mundial e reequilibrar a globalização para que a humanidade chegue mais perto de uma comunidade de destino comum", disse o presidente chinês, Xi Jinping, ao abrir, na semana passada, um fórum internacional sobre o projeto, batizado de Nova Rota da Seda.
O fórum contou com a participação de cerca de 30 líderes mundiais, entre eles os presidentes da Rússia, Vladimir Putin, da Turquia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, da Argentina, Maurício Macri, e do Chile, Michelle Bachelet.
A ideia da Nova Rota da Seda - com nome inspirado na antiga rota comercial que ligou o Oriente e o Ocidente há dois mil anos - é melhorar conexões comerciais entre Ásia e Europa e Ásia e o leste da África, promovendo desenvolvimento, com a construção ou expansão de redes de ferrovia de alta velocidade, gasodutos, oleodutos, portos e centros logísticos.

domingo, 21 de maio de 2017

Argentina no caminho do futuro

Argentina's Future: Malbec, Macri, And Moet Hennessy


As vantagens econômicas da automatização

Automation actually improves the economy, tech insider says

New York Post 

quinta-feira, 18 de maio de 2017

Economia mundial no maio 2017

New impulses for the European Union
With the election of Emmanuel Macro as the President of the French Republic, the European project is gaining new impulses. In stark contrast to his challenger, Madame Marine Le Pen who threatened to lead France out of the Euro and even out of the European Union in case she would gain the election, Macron is a staunch European. In his acceptance speech right after the election, Macron demonstrated his full support of a political European Union by having the European hymn being played before the French national anthem. The cabinet he put together includes many members with a pro-European stance.
More turmoil in the United States
Quite different from Europe, where things seem to calm down, the United States moves from one scandal to the next. The presidency of Donald Trump is under fire from all sides. Even members of his own party have turned skeptical about Trump’s capacity to lead the nation. The latest outrage that excited the media all over the United States was the leak that President Trump has shared sensitive national security material with the Russians at a recent meeting in the White House. This comes on top of claims from the opposition party of the Democrats that Trump’s had received support during the election campaign by the Russian government.
Stock market plunges
Partly as a reaction to the political turmoil at the US Presidency, the U.S. stock market has begun to give up some of the gains that the market had won after Trump’s election when rumors were mounting that Congress was trying to initiate am impeachment process against the President. Yet beyond the immediate political concerns, the stock market has also many structural reasons to fall given that valuation are overextended and the real growth prospect much less than the stock market seems to anticipate. Given the important role of the U.S. financial market, a fall of U.S. stocks will also affect the rest of the world irrespective of the specific situation in these regions.
Comeback of the Euro
The widening divergence between the United States and Europe in terms of political stability will most likely lead to a stronger Euro in the coming months. The spread could even get more pronounced when indeed the U.S. president should be confronted with an impeachment procedure. Beyond that, however, there are also fundamental reasons why the Euro should strengthen. France is surely coming out of its long stagnation along with Spain and Portugal and join the strong growth countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Ireland. This would leave only Italy as a major country that still is in stagnation. Yet should cylinders fire in France, Italy would probably get the required impulses in order to higher economic growth.   
Economic growth
As of now, the improved outlook for economic growth seems to hold. Even is the United States should disappoint in the coming months, economic growth will get stronger in Europe. The result of the French election has given new confidence to European business. Together with the strong growth in Germany, accelerated economic growth in France will most likely spill over to Italy, the third-largest Euro economy. Even more so, there are signs the Japanese economy has finally come around the corner and move out of its decade-long period of low growth.

Prices and interest rates
The fact that price inflation has remained low even in the face of strongly fallen unemployment rates points to the expectation that and the outbreak of inflation is not imminent. There is, however, the possibility that the U.S. central bank could act proactively and go ahead before prices begin to rise significantly. As of now, given the political certainties in the U.S., the chances for a preemptive strike have diminished. Likewise, the European Central Bank will most likely wait at least as the economic situation in Italy becomes clearer. In Japan, the central bank is quite glad that the economy is moving ahead that a decision to raise interest rates is surely not a high priority
The strong labor market performance In the United States, Japan, and Germany will most likely continue.  It remains to be seen how a stronger French economy could reduce the unemployment rate of France, which is still very high. Across Europe, the employment situation is very uneven. This may contribute to a constellation where overall wage demands have remained subdued even in areas with very low unemployment rates. Some of the wage gains have come to the workers through deflation in the form of higher real wages.
Current account and exchange rates
The exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro that has remained very stable over the past years will probably change in favor of a strengthening of the Euro. In terms of the purchasing power, the U.S. dollar is highly valued at its present level. The political uncertainty should come in as an additional factor to correct the overvaluation of the U.S. dollar that has been in place for quite some time and has contributed to a certain degree to the deindustrialization of some parts of the U.S. economy. It remains to be seen, however, whether the exchange rate realignment would be massive enough to correct its impact on U.S. competitiveness and do away with the persistent current account deficits of the United States.
North Korea
Slowly but surely, Venezuela is falling apart. Almost daily, there are deadly protests in the street. The government is helpless and other that to increase suppression has no way out. Foreign help from apparent allied has not shown up. No foreign power from abroad will risk a major geopolitical conflict with the United States by giving full support to the Venezuelan government. As bad as the situation is right now, as fast it could change when the present Socialist government resigns, allows open elections and makes room for a new government that promises to pursue solid free market reforms.
North Korea
Despite all warning, the leader of North Korea, Kim Jon-un, continues to push forward his nuclear program. With strong support from the United States, neither South Korea nor Japan will tolerate this North Korean policy. Yet being aware of the consequence of military conflict, the major efforts concentrate on a peaceful solution. Yet given that even the Chines ally of Kim Jon-un has no control over the North Korean leadership, the conflict is far from a solution and can turn any moment into a dramatic showdown.  
The fears of an economic collapse of China have not materialized. It seems the China has succeeded in settling down on a lower growth project, an adaptation that was highly necessary given the fierce growth of the Chinese economy over the past decades. In as much as the current U.S. administration is stuck in internal turmoil so that China may feel of having a free hand to continue its expansionary moves into the South China Sea. In going ahead with this project, the Chinese leadership may actually have a high interest in reigning in any adventurous movement by North Korea.

Turkey, a country with very close ties to the West – it is a NATO member and has been a candidate for membership in the European Union – is on its way of moving from an authoritarian regime to an outright dictatorship. These links, together with its exposed strategic location in the Middle East make it a pivotal country in the region. Over the past decades, Turkey had made great economic progress. The change towards outright dictatorship means a harsh setback for the economy. It remains to be seen whether from here on Turkey enters the spiral of political unrest and economic decline or whether the country can get out in time from this trap. 
Antony P. Mueller
May 18, 2017


A corrupção da economia

Keynesianism, not free-market ideology, explains Larry Summers

quarta-feira, 17 de maio de 2017

Economia segundo Keynes

J. M. Keynes to Harrod , 4 July 1938 [a]

[Answered by 790 ]
Tilton, Firle, Lewes. #
4 July 1938
My dear Roy,
There is no doubt that your Presidential Address, [1] which I have sent to the printer, is very interesting; and it will provoke plenty of thought. Indeed it is much the best Presidential Address for many years. I am very glad to print it in full; but I would remind you that it will take considerably over an hour to read at a reasonable pace.
Sections III and IV I like without reserve. But in sections I and II, although I agree with nearly all your detail and your treatment within your own chosen terrain, I am not so clear that you have chosen or planned your terrain rightly.
It seems to me that economics is a branch of logic, a way of thinking; and that you do not repel sufficiently firmly attempts à la Schultz to turn it into a pseudo-natural-science. [2] One can make some quite worthwhile progress merely by using your axioms and maxims. But one cannot get very far except by devising new and improved models. This requires, as you say, "a vigilant observation of the actual working of our system". [3] Progress in economics consists almost entirely in a progressive improvement in the choice of models. The grave fault of the later classical school, exemplified by Pigou, has been to overwork a too simple or out of date model, and in not seeing that progress lay in improving the model; whilst Marshall often confused his models, for the devising of which [b] he had great genius, by wanting to be realistic and by being unnecessarily ashamed of lean and abstract outlines.
But it is of the essence of a model that one does not fill in real values for the variable functions. [4] To do so would make it useless as a model. For as soon as this is done, the model loses its generality and its value as a mode of thought. That is why Clapham with his empty boxes was barking up the wrong tree [5] and why Schultz's 1 results, if he ever gets any, are not very interesting (for we know beforehand that they will not be applicable to future cases). The object of statistical study is not so much to fill in missing variables with a view to prediction, as to test the relevance and validity of the model.
Economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world. It is compelled to be this, because, unlike the typical natural science, the material to which it is applied is, in too many respects, not homogeneous through time. The object of a model is to segregate the semi-permanent or relatively constant factors from those which are transitory or fluctuating so as to develop a logical way of thinking about the latter, and of understanding the time sequences to which they give rise in particular cases.
Good economists are scarce because the gift for using "vigilant observation" to choose good models, although it does not require a highly specialised intellectual technique, appears to be a very rare one.
In the second place, as against Robbins, economics is essentially a moral science and not a natural science. [6] That is to say, it employs introspection and judgments of value.
I must stop writing. I do not expect you differ much from the above reflections, which show the lines along which your paper has set me thinking.
Yours ever,
J M Keynes
R. F. Harrod Esq., 6 Beaumont Street, Oxford.

  1. 1. Harrod, "Scope and Method of Economics" ( 1938:15 ).
    2. In his Address, Harrod referred to H. Schultz's Statistical Laws of Supply and Demand with Special Application to Sugar, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1928 ( 1938:15 , p. 401). Keynes, however, may also have been thinking of Schultz's The Theory and Measurement of Demand, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, published in July 1938.
    Harrod's opinion on Schultz may have formed during his visit to the United States with the Bodleian Library Commission in 1930:
    • I saw the work that Schultz is doing. He is interested in pure theory, but unlike the old school, he is attempting to connect it with elaborate statistical investigations and for this he needs and gets the assistance of a number of computers. On the other hand I dont think that his research involves any kind of field work. (Harrod to E. E. Day, 9 October 1930, in RF 1.1, Series 401R, Box 61, Folder 805).
    3. Harrod, "Scope and Method of Economics" ( 1938:15 ), p. 402.
    4. Refers to Harrod's claim that the substitution "of real equations for the present empty forms" would bring economics "on its way to looking much more like a mature science" (Harrod 1938:15 , p. 401).
    5. J. H. Clapham, "Of Empty Economic Boxes", Economic Journal XXXII, September 1932, pp. 305-14.
    6. L. Robbins, An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science, London: Macmillan, 1935 (2nd edition). The relationship between economics and the natural sciences is discussed on pp. 104-5, between economics and ethics on pp. 147-51.
    1. a. TLS with autograph correction and addition, three pages on three leaves, in HP II-78A. CcI in JMK EJ/1/5/218-20. The letter is printed in Keynes, Collected Writings, volume XIV, pp. 295-97. Reproduced by kind permission of the Provost and Scholars, King's College, Cambridge.
      b. Ms: «for devising which».

domingo, 14 de maio de 2017

Friedman e a velocidade da circulação monetária

Milton Friedman and data adjustment

Neil Ericsson, David Hendry, Stedman Hood 04 May 2017

Os países mais felizes


segunda-feira, 8 de maio de 2017

Gráfico da semana


Piketty errado

A study of the richest people in Britain challenges the famous economist Thomas Piketty's theory about wealth

Business Insider 

Teorema da Impossibilidade

o Teorema da Impossibilidade explicado com simplicidade e elegancia. Obrigada Marcos Lisboa!

RESUMO Num sobrevoo por mais de 200 anos de teoria, autor explica a importância de Kenneth Arrow, que recebeu os prêmios mais relevantes de…

sábado, 6 de maio de 2017

Bolsa americana perto de estourar

Bolsa americana - a bolha está perto de estourar
Antony P. Mueller
6 de Maio de 2017

Depois de uma queda acentuada durante a recessão, na esteira da crise dos mercados financeiros de 2008 (ver área sombreada no gráfico abaixo), o mercado de ações dos EUA fez uma aguda mudança de direção em 2009. Desde então, as ações realizaram um rali que levantou a Standard & Poor's índice de 500 ações cotadas na Bolsa de Valores de Nova York de abaixo de 800 até 2399 pontos de índice em 05 de maio de 2017. No entanto, enquanto a avaliação do mercado de ações triplicou nos últimos dois anos, a economia dos EUA em termos do produto interno bruto real aumentou menos de 20% e, em termos nominais, cerca de 25% nos últimos sete anos.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 2007-2017

No longo prazo, as ações estão correlacionadas com o crescimento econômico. No entanto, existem, ocasionalmente, períodos de tempo em que as ações superam ou sofrem desempenho inferior à economia real por margens consideráveis. Atualmente, assim parece, a avaliação do mercado de ações está bem à frente da economia real. Evidências empíricas mostram que a correção de mercado não ocorre nem suave nem moderadamente, mas o excesso para o lado positivo é seguido por um excesso para o lado negativo e vice-versa.
Existem razões para crer que uma correção do mercado acionista é iminente e que tal correção reduziria consideravelmente as avaliações? Tal pergunta pede os determinantes que provocaram as altas avaliações atuais.
Uma razão indiscutível para as elevadas avaliações das ações nos Estados Unidos é a política da chamada "afrouxamento quantitativo" que fez com que o banco central americano (FED) aumentar a base monetária de abaixo de um trilhão para quase quatro e meio trilhões dólares. Ao mesmo tempo, o FED reduziu a taxa de juros (taxa de fundos federais) de cinco por cento em 2007 para 0,5 por cento em 2009. Não foi até o final de 2016 que o banco central começou a aumentar a taxa em pequenos passos para o nível atual de um por cento, que ainda é extremamente baixo.
As taxas de juros em um nível tão baixo não só levaram a um frenesi "busca de rendimento". Essas baixas taxas também têm provocado que as empresas usem seu excesso de liquidez para recomprar ações. Ambas as políticas estão prestes a terminar e, portanto, uma correção do mercado de ações parece inevitável.