quarta-feira, 26 de abril de 2017


Palestra sobre 
"Análise do ciclo de credito baseada em capital" 
(Capital-based credit cycle analysis)
no Auditório do CCSA II (em frente da DID I)
Quinta, 27 de Abril de 2017 as 18:00
Evento organizado pelo NUPEC na série de seminários econômicos.

terça-feira, 25 de abril de 2017

Balanços comerciais 2016


Novas teorias de emprego

Andy Smarick | AEIdeas
The way the issue is reported, it's easy to conclude that employment is largely a mechanical exercise: When jobs are available, more people work; when jobs are cut, more people are unemployed. After taking an economics class, we might have a slightly more sophisticated understanding — that individuals also make calculations about work based on how they prioritize income vis-a-vis leisure. But recent events and research should force us to see the workforce entirely differently.

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sábado, 22 de abril de 2017

Impostos 1913

Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas
When the US federal income tax was first introduced in 1913, it was a lot simpler to file taxes. Individual federal income rates started at 1 percent in 1913, and the maximum marginal rate was only 7 percent on incomes above $500,000 (more than $12 million in today's dollars). In reality, very few Americans had to pay federal income tax since the average income in 1913 was only about $750. Nevertheless, the country still had schools, roads, colleges, a vast railroad system, and a military.

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Taxa de juros na Área do euro 1997-2017


quinta-feira, 20 de abril de 2017

Aposentadoria na Alemanha

"Aposentadoria na Alemanha"
Apresentação de Antony Mueller no II. Fórum de Economia da UFS 18 de Abril de 2017
Data Show e Youtube Video
Data Show: http://www.continentaleconomics.com/…/Aposentadoria_na_Alem…
Video da apresentação:

Inserção Internacional

Resumo da aula do 18 de Abril
Inserção Internacional -
Modelo "two gap"
Modelo crescimento com dívida
Modelo crescimento pelas exportação
Clip no Youtube

Apostila Macro III


Apostila Economia Internacional


segunda-feira, 17 de abril de 2017

Nova Sinopse Econômica

Sinopse Econômica
ano 2, n. 4, abril de 2017


II Fórum de Economia da UFS Amanhã, 18 de Abril, teremos o II Fórum de economia, que começa às 18:50h e será realizado no auditório da didática V. Em relação ao tema específico, previdência, teremos duas apresentações:
· Antony: linhas gerais do sistema previdenciário da Alemanha (20 minutos)
· Wagner: reforma da previdência no Brasil (30 minutos).
Em relação discussão da conjuntura, Thiago, Fábio e Rogério falarão brevemente na introdução do evento.

Posição do Brasil no mundo

"... No ranking da competitividade, entre  140 países, nos chamados requisitos básicos o Brasil ocupa a 103a posição; no quesito eficiência e funcionamento das instituições 121a; na infraestrutura 74a; no ambiente macroeconômico 117a; na  saúde e ensino fundamental 103a; na  educação superior e qualificação professional 93a; na  eficiência do Mercado 128a; na eficiência do fator trabalho 122a; desenvolvimento do Sistema financeiro 58a e tamanha  do Mercado 7a. posição; excluindo este ultimo requisito o Brasil passaria a ocupar a 97a posição no ranking..."
Juacy da Silva

sábado, 15 de abril de 2017

Relação entre taxa de juros e investimentos

"A fundamental tenet of traditional theories of investment and monetary policy transmission is that interest rates are a critical determinant of business investment expenditures.  Yet, a large body of empirical research offers mixed evidence, at best, for substantial interest-rate effects on investment.  We examine the sensitivity of investment plans to interest rates based on surveys of CFOs during the recent economic recovery.  We find that most firms claim their investment plans to be quite insensitive to decreases in interest rates, and only somewhat more responsive to interest rate increases.  CFOs most frequently cited either ample cash or the low level of interest rates as reasons for lack of sensitivity.  In the cross-section, we find that insensitivity to interest rate changes tends to be most pronounced among firms that do not indicate financial constraints as a top concern and firms with no near-term plans to borrow. Perhaps more surprisingly, investment is also less interest-rate sensitive at firms expecting higher year-ahead growth. These findings appear to be consistent with survey data on the “hurdle rates” firms report using to make new investments decisions: the average reported hurdle rate has hovered near15 percent for decades, despite the downward trend in market interest rates.  Moreover, firms expecting to grow more tend to have higher hurdle rates, suggesting a possible connection between interest rate insensitivity and high hurdle rates."
Why isn’t Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates: Evidence from Surveys
Steven A. Sharpe and Gustavo A. Suarez

Efeito do multiplicador fiscal

 How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers? by Ethan Ilzetzki, Enrique G. Mendoza, Carlos A. Végh (2010)
We contribute to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rates but is zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are smaller than in closed economies; (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are negative.

Pobreza 1820 - 2015